Run a Monte Carlo simulation in 60 seconds — no spreadsheets, no PhD required. Enter your task estimates and see the probability your project hits its deadline.
Project managers who use probabilistic forecasting give more accurate estimates, manage stakeholder expectations better, and sleep better at night.
Monte Carlo runs thousands of simulations using your actual estimates to give you probability-based finish dates — not just a single best guess.
Whether you're managing a real project or studying for your risk exam, this tool shows you how quantitative risk analysis actually works in practice.
No statistics degree required. Enter your low, likely, and high estimates. Hit run. See your P50, P70, P80, and P90 dates in seconds.
Four steps. Sixty seconds. Real probabilistic analysis.
Add up to 20 tasks. For each one, enter your optimistic, most likely, and pessimistic duration in days.
The tool runs up to 10,000 trials, sampling random durations from your ranges each time — just like a real Monte Carlo analysis.
See your P50, P70, P80, and P90 finish dates in plain English. The histogram shows the full spread of possible outcomes.
Enter your email to receive a summary of your simulation results plus a free resource to deepen your risk management skills.
Enter your project tasks below. Use days as your unit of measurement.